Where Have All The Big Bads Gone?

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Where Have All The Big Bads Gone?

June 10, 2010: In Pakistan's tribal territories, the army's biggest day-to-day problem is operating some kind of government. Since before Pakistan was founded in 1948, the tribal territories were run by tribal authorities. Over the last sixty years, the government police and bureaucrats have taken control of urban areas in the tribal territories (cities and large towns), but that still leaves over ten million people out in the countryside, ruled by centuries old tribal custom and whim. This is where the Taliban emerged, and where over three million people still liver under the control of pro-Taliban tribal leaders. As the army drives Taliban gunmen out of an area, it is faced with the problem of finding pro-government tribesmen willing to work with army or civilian bureaucrats to run the area. Since the Taliban like to stick around, passing as regular folks, and terrorize their tribal opponents, this is asking a lot.

The Pakistani Army is preparing to move into North Waziristan, the last area where a large concentration of Taliban can be found. North Waziristan is small (only 4,700 square kilometers, and 365,000 people). But most of the adult men have guns, and using them is considered both an obligation and something of an outdoor sport. Despite its smaller population, North Waziristan is considered a tougher objective than South Waziristan, Orakzai, Bajaur and Swat. The North Waziristan tribes can put over 30,000 armed (if not very well trained or equipped) men into action. Like Bajaur, a river runs through it (the Tochi, and into Afghanistan via the Tochi pass.) Most tribal leaders in North Waziristan can see where this is going, and are trying to work out deals that will spare them attacks by the army or the Taliban (who like to murder disloyal tribal leaders). The army wants to keep down the civilian casualties, as the families of such victims have long memories. Blood feuds are a major obsession up in those hills. Thus the effort to get the North Waziristan tribes to drive out the Taliban gunmen in their territory, or at least identify them and where they are. The pro-government tribes are willing to do this, and apparently are already providing information.

The army wants to go in quick, and round up the remaining Taliban before too many others get hurt. During this planning process, it's become apparent that many of the al Qaeda and Taliban (and other terror group) leaders that have long hid out in places like North Waziristan, are no longer there. Where have these guys gone? Some believe they have gone to Afghanistan. But that is not a safe place for terrorist big shots, and there's little evidence that new ones are coming in (many already there are known to be recently dead, or fled.) Fleeing to Yemen or Somalia is not much of an option, as both places are now hard to get into, and stay hidden. Both those areas are under intense scrutiny by Western counter-terrorism forces. Iran is not hospitable to Sunni Islamic radicals (who are big fans of killing Shia Moslems, which is what Iranians are). It seems more likely that these terrorist leaders have fled to the more populous parts of Pakistan (Punjab, Sind and major cities like Karachi). Pakistani officials do not like this outcome, but it appears to be what is happening. Local police in Punjab and Sind are dealing with it, after years of blaming terrorist violence on outsiders. It's now obvious to all that Islamic groups have been operating in Punjab and Sind for quite some time, with little assistance from outsiders.

India and the United States are pressuring Pakistan to stop protecting some Islamic terror groups. This selective counter-terror campaign simply provides a place for terrorists to hide out. Islamic terrorists simply declare they belong to one of the "protected groups" and carry on as always.

The Pakistani government revealed that a computer contractor, working on updating the data systems used by senior government officials, had stolen classified documents and fled. These contractors are vetted before getting access to secret data, and it is not known why this fellow turned rogue.

India-Pakistan: Where Have All The Big Bads Gone?