SCENARIOS-Shooting case tests US-Pakistan relations

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SCENARIOS-Shooting case tests US-Pakistan relations
Thu, Feb 17 2011

"The stakes are huge" -- former CIA analyst

Will government be seen as caving in to US pressure?

Potential for US settlement with families of slain men

ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The arrest of an American man for killing two Pakistanis has created the worst crisis in years between uneasy allies in Washington and Islamabad, threatening the war in Afghanistan and the stability of the Pakistani government.

U.S. officials are putting heavy pressure on Pakistan's fragile government to secure the release of Raymond Davis, a former special forces soldier who they say is a U.S. consular employee with diplomatic immunity. [ID:nSGE71H07J]

Davis, whose precise connection to the U.S. government has not been officially confirmed, shot two men on a Lahore street last month during what he said was a robbery attempt.

President Asif Ali Zardari's government is reluctant to add fuel to a fiery anti-American mood in Pakistan and has said local courts must decide. With Islamist militants seeking to capitalize on the Davis case, Washington must be careful not to undermine Zardari as it seeks a swift resolution.

"The stakes here are huge. Pakistan is key to the war with al Qaeda and the war in Afghanistan," said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA analyst who led President Barack Obama's review of U.S. policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009.

Here are several scenarios for how the Davis case could unfold and effect U.S.-Pakistan ties:

DAVIS FREED BUT AT WHAT PRICE FOR PAKISTAN?

Analysts in the United States see little chance that Davis will be convicted and kept in Pakistani custody, saying a solution eventually will be found.

Islamabad has good reason to want the problem to go away.

A major recipient of U.S. military aid, Pakistan needs the help to equip soldiers fighting militants who have waged war against the government since 2001. Pakistan also has relied on U.S. aid to help it recover from natural disasters and to battle widespread poverty.

With that in mind, the Zardari government may lean hard on Pakistan's Foreign Ministry to certify that Davis does have diplomatic immunity from prosecution in local courts.

The Lahore High Court, which has said it will follow the Foreign Ministry's guidance, would then declare that Davis can be released, ending a threat to multibillion-dollar U.S. aid.

But the government, already facing public anger for tacitly backing U.S. drone strikes on militants in tribal areas, could pay a heavy price if it is seen caving in to U.S. pressure over the Davis case.

"If this happens then there will be a storm, everybody will be involved ... but the most effective response will come from the Taliban and al Qaeda," said Pakistani political analyst Khalid Ahmed. "This is a very good opportunity for them to increase their acceptance among the people."

On Friday, protesters in Lahore and other cities demanded Davis be tried in Pakistan. Some of the demonstrators burned U.S. flags.

One U.S. official said the Pakistani government's reaction had been colored by the anti-government protests sweeping the Middle East and the fear that they could spread to Pakistan.

"None of this happens in a vacuum," the official said. "Obviously, with every image from Libya, Bahrain, Tunisia, Egypt, this factors into the Pakistani calculus."

DAVIS REMAINS IN JAIL, U.S. TIES SUFFER

The issue already has driven a wedge between Islamabad and Washington, adding to long-standing U.S. complaints that Pakistan has not acted strongly enough against militants that are killing U.S. soldiers across the border in Afghanistan.

U.S. government sources say the case has clouded the critical relationship between the countries' security agencies, possibly making it even harder for the United States to succeed in Afghanistan, where bloodshed reached record levels in 2010.

One senior U.S. administration official said if a solution is not found quickly, the U.S. Congress could cut foreign aid.

The White House on Monday asked Congress to give Islamabad $1.1 billion through the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund to help fight Islamists and another $1.9 billion in economic aid. The money is for the fiscal 2012 year that begins Oct. 1.

"The longer this goes on, the higher the potential cost in the relationship," the official said. "Sooner or later, if they can't resolve it, Congress is going to start sending some signals."

Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, said Pakistan may again start to curtail issuing visas to U.S. diplomatic personnel, which has been a major irritant in the past.

PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT BROKERS A DEAL

There is mounting speculation the United States might back payment of compensation, or blood money, as laid out under Pakistani law, even if it is loathe to support such a payment in what it sees as a case of self-defense.

Under this scenario, Pakistan would facilitate U.S. contact with the families of the two slain men -- and, presumably, a third who was struck and killed by a U.S. vehicle about the same time -- to offer a deal.

"The best, perhaps the only, option for the government is to pacify the relatives of those killed to come to some compromise," said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general. "It's the only option everyone seems to be working on."

This would require the families' acceptance of such a payment, sanctioned by Islamic law and common in some parts of rural Pakistan as a way to settle disputes.

But emotions are running high in the Davis case, possibly fueled by heavy media attention.

One of the slain men's wives committed suicide shortly after the incident and other family members have vowed they will be satisfied only by vengeance.

SCENARIOS-Shooting case tests US-Pakistan relations | Reuters