PPP three years after

[Neo]

PPP three years after

Monday January 04, 2010

In the cold days of December people remained busy with discussions on two hot topics, ‘performance of the government’ and ‘what after three years’. The PPP is being criticised for many reasons, some of which are relevant, some superficial and some PPP’s president specific. Nothing strange about it, vibrant democracy, free media and independent judiciary all three are new to us; and whatever they are doing should be taken as a new beginning.

The second topic, subject matter of this article, is about probable outcome of next elections that will be held in 2013. Majority of the people think that things will not change, for the better, for the PPP, MQM, ANP and JUI, the PML (N) will gain a dozen more seats, the JI and TI will win at the most six or seven seats and the Baloch and Pukhtoon nationalists will win majority of seats in Balochistan.

Peoples’ wisdom at times prevails, but it is too early to be that exact, particularly about formation of next government. Even if situation remains as normal or abnormal as it is today, things can change. There is a possibility that despite keeping its seats intact and winning a few more, the PPP may not be able to form the next government in the centre. New alliance can come up to replace it. Before talking about nature of future alliances, it will be worthwhile to talk first about the PML (Q).

The PML (Q), Shujaat- Mushahid group, is not basically the party of masses. Though there is no Musharraf around, it is not an orphan either. It has capacity to win about fifty seats, or even more, because it has not only many stalwarts in its fold but also a big popular cadre that emerged through district governments. Moreover, this party has one particular advantage that no other party has; the bureaucracy and administration are fully behind it and the military establishment has not ditched it — as yet. If it remains dynamic, it will be the most sought after party in the business of alliance making. The truth, however, is that the stalwarts attached to it are a fluctuating lot and they may not remain loyal. Most of them may join the PPP and PML (N), or prefer to contest election as independent candidates.

The PPP and PML (N) will be in a great race to form alliances. Who will win is a difficult question. The PML (N) has many advantages. It is party of the rich. It has friends in the army due to ideological and race based affinity. During coming three years it may also win sympathies of a part of the administration. On external front, the Arabs too will support it and the Americans will remain, as usual, ‘neutral’. It has, however, two big disadvantages. The Europeans are fearful of its ideological background, and it has through out its past betrayed its allies. Guarantees of internal and external supporters to its would be allies and the Europeans may help it win the centre.

The PPP, too, will have to struggle in finding partners. Its present alliance is working on ad hoc basis. The MQM’s support is mostly issue based, and not alliance related and that keeps the alliance fragile. MQM’s narrow support base that is confined to the cities of Sindh is its strength as well as weakness. The PPP is not likely to make inroads into this support base, but fact of the matter is that the PPP’s top leader is also Sindh based and the Mohajir intelligentsia by and large supports the PPP, and that makes the two parties rivals; and this is one of the two main factors that keep relationship between two parties unpredictable. The other factor is that of the anti-PPP establishment.

The ANP and JUI will feel comfortable with the PPP but their future alliance will depend on the capacity— how many seats are won — of the PPP in forming the government. Anyway these three parties will remain one way or the other allies till militancy ends and Pukhtoon Khaw becomes peaceful. The Baloch nationalists will not openly side with the PPP, but they will not oppose its alliance making efforts either.

In a nutshell Pakistan will not go through a big change, as far as the seat winning ability of various parties is concerned. It will be either PML (N) or the PPP that will form the next government in alliance with the regional parties. The two parties will win about ninety (+/- ten) seats each. The PML (Q) can cause an upset by winning around seventy seats; and it is likely to happen if the PML (N) and PPP fail to deliver in Punjab and centre respectively.

Seat winning capacity of political parties notwithstanding, politics in Pakistan has come out of inertia as for as peoples’ awareness is concerned. We should be thankful for this revolution to the cable age. People watch the foreign channels and compare other countries with Pakistan on hourly basis. The programmes on National Geography and other similar channels have taught the masses how man and animals behave, how they change, how mankind is progressing intellectually as well as physically, and why the westerners are a thousand year ahead. People, now, want the kind of facilities that developed nations have, and they know that only strong political system can do the needful.

Whether or not the PPP wins another term, let us leave this question to time. What is needed most is to continue with the political direction the PPP has given through its reconciliatory policies, inside and outside. Continuity of policies will mean that in coming years we will have peace within and at the borders and that will help us divert resources from security to social development. Continuity of policies will also mean that in coming decade economic conditions of common Pakistanis will certainly improve.