Farnborough 2010: Keep Calm And Carry On

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Farnborough 2010: Keep Calm And Carry On

Jun 28, 2010
By Douglas Barrie


British industry in particular—and the wider sector in general—will want to put its best foot forward at the Farnborough showcase, but it is also taking a stride into the unknown.

Turmoil in the U.K. domestic economy, as well as the recently elected government’s warning of an age of austerity and cross-departmental budget cuts form a challenging backdrop for one of the world’s premier aerospace trade shows.

On the European stage, economic strife also continues. Greece’s is the worst plight of European Union economies, but it is not alone in facing financial woes. Budgets are under scrutiny or are already being cut in capitols across Europe, with defense expenditure a guaranteed target.

In the U.S., the defense dollar is also under strain, though from a far higher baseline than Washington’s less well-off European military counterparts.

The commercial airline sector, conversely, is looking healthier—at least in the U.S. and the Asia-Pacific region, where passenger and freight traffic are picking up. The European picture, however, is less appealing, with the transient impact of the volcanic ash disruption merely adding discomfit to the economic malaise. U.K. flag carrier British Airways is struggling with a union dispute that it can ill afford but senior management is unwilling to avoid.

If both civil and military show attendees’ immediate focus is on the sector’s financial welfare and the broader economic outlook, there are signs on the horizon that the aerospace world’s centers of gravity may become more numerous and subsequently less concentrated.

Brazil’s Embraer is now a fixture in the regional arena, and several countries are looking to emulate the manufacturer’s success, either in the same area or in the narrowbody airliner market.

These challenges will be reflected during the first four days of the July 19-25 trade show, which will include themed morning conferences. Ian Godden, chairman of aerospace and defense lobbyist ADS, the parent of show organizer Farnborough International, says the conference program is meant to provide a platform “to discuss key issues that are affecting their business with fellow members of the industry and government officials.” There will be no shortage of topics.

Monday July 19 will kick off with the theme of “aerospace” focused on “the future of aviation design and technology.” With the delay of next-generation narrowbody projects, the further renewal of technology for Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft will be of considerable interest. The direction of talks between Airbus parent EADS and comparative regional upstart Embraer will be a point of discussion, as will the engine manufacturers’ respective strategies in addressing the narrowbody sector.

The theme for the second day’s conference is defense; with the outcome of a U.K. Strategic Defense & Security Review to be made public likely in the fourth quarter, domestic concerns will no doubt be on the agenda. However, U.S. industry is also girding for a reduction in Pentagon procurement funds. One company president says he anticipates the U.S. Defense Department procurement allocation could fall by 3-4% as financial pressures from other areas of defense spending come to bear.

“We will bring defense policy, plans, commitments and resources into balance, and produce over time a transformative change to British defense,” Liam Fox, the British secretary of state for defense, told an audience at the Royal United Services Institute in London June 14. “Gone will be the salami-slicing approach of the previous Labour government, replaced with a considered, coherent, long-term direction for Defense policy that is achievable and sustainable.”

The aim of a coherent long-term direction is as commendable as it is worthy. It is, however, far from the first time a defense minister has espoused such lofty ambitions. Previous efforts have fallen considerably short of the intent, and there will be continuing speculation as to the content of the U.K.’s strategic review among show participants.

Fox’s comment concerning “legacy programs from the Cold War that are of less relevance today” is likely indicative that some platforms could be withdrawn from service earlier than presently anticipated. And, while he insists the review “may be resource-informed, it is policy-led,” this will remain a subject for debate and scrutiny at the show.

The July 21 theme will be space, of interest following the establishment of the U.K. Space Agency in March by the previous government. The agency’s immediate development was hampered by the period of “purdah” leading up to the May general election. It is intended to take on “key government budgets” for space, creating a coherent focus for civil space programs that have previously been run across several government departments, councils and the strategy board.

But the cash-strapped U.K. government is not in a position to provide any significant additional money for space, and the likelihood is that funds will be cut as part of wider austerity measures. Nonetheless, industry and academia are keen to see the agency’s development pursued with renewed vigor, even if the aspirations for more funding have been replaced by a desire to simply try to sustain as near to present levels as realistic.

The final ADS conference theme, security, is a target area for many businesses looking to diversify outside their traditional aerospace and defense markets. Potential applications in the security arena contribute to the continuing interest in flying unmanned aerial vehicles at the show. The approach being considered, says the conference organizer, is to have a “dedicated [unmanned aircraft system] display period in the 30 min. immediately prior to the start of the flying display.”

The overall flying display is planned to include two debut aircraft. Sixteen years after it appeared as a full-scale wooden mock-up in 1994, the Airbus Military A400M airlifter is due to take to the air for the first time at Farnborough. The Chinese FC-1/JF-17 light fighter will also make an appearance. The Chengdu-designed aircraft is being assembled by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and is now entering service with the Pakistan air force.

The commercial debut on the static line will be the Boeing 787 twin-engine widebody passenger aircraft. Appearing to finally have a handle on the manufacturing issues that repeatedly delayed first flight, Boeing is looking to manage an aggressive ramp-up in production to meet its order book.

While in the commercial aircraft and tanker markets Boeing and EADS remain at loggerheads over World Trade Organization rulings and the Pentagon’s tanker competition, there is rapprochement in the rotary environment: Boeing and EADS subsidiary Eurocopter are working jointly on the Future Transport Helicopter (FTH) project and Boeing is leading an AgustaWestland AW101 pitch to meet the revived VXX requirement for a U.S. presidential helicopter.

The rotary world is also seeing renewed emphasis on driving the technology forward, with military and civil research in the U.S. and Russia once again examining how to push beyond the inherent speed limitations of lift-rotor-only propulsion.

The renewal of the technology base represents both a test and an opportunity for the industry. It is occurring not just for helicopters, but across the sector, in the next generation of commercial aircraft and in military aerospace. As manufacturers step onto the world stage at Farnborough 2010, the approaches they are taking to address such challenges and to ride the present economic difficulties should become at least a little clearer.

Farnborough 2010: Keep Calm And Carry On | AVIATION WEEK