Is TAPI through Iran possible?
EDITORIAL (August 28 2010): Pakistan has proposed to a visiting delegation from Turkmenistan, led by Rashid Ovezgeldievich, Vice Premier and Foreign Minister, to consider bypassing strife-torn Afghanistan and instead, lay the gas pipeline under Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), through Iran, and connect it to the proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.
This would, of course, necessitate a change of name to TIPI. From a logistical and tactical perspective, this is a good idea as one of the major impediments to the TAPI had been concerns by the energy-surplus Turkmenistan, as well as the energy deficient Pakistan and India, of the high cost of risk associated with possible attacks on the pipeline by the Afghan insurgents.
However, bypassing Afghanistan would, without doubt, create a host of diplomatic concerns that may be difficult, if not impossible, for three of the four TIPI countries to withstand. The exception of course would be Iran that is already sanctioned by the international community led by the United States.
It is no secret that the US has been supporting the TAPI and has been opposed to the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Considering that these two projects the (TAPI and IP) have been on the drawing board for over a decade at least, shows that both suffer from serious impediments. It is also no secret that Pakistan and India are energy-starved countries, though the case of Pakistan is considerably worse, thus both countries would welcome access to a reliable energy source.
It is also evident that Turkmenistan would welcome any increase in its revenue through sale of its surplus energy. Iran, too, would benefit as it would charge the end-consumers of Turkmen gas a transit fee, which is likely to run into millions of dollars. Thus, it is indeed a win-win situation for all participating countries, though perhaps India may revisit its support in light of what it may consider are its security concerns, as the pipeline would have to be laid through Pakistan in order to reach India.
And what would be the clincher of course is that the US would almost certainly not support the TIPI. Rerouting the TAPI is, therefore, quite obviously a naive proposal that fails to take account of the existing geopolitical concerns. So where does Pakistan stand today? Importing gas through laying pipes is one way, however, the process of agreement between the participating countries has been slow and arduous and many an analyst has pessimistically stated that he/she would believe that these projects are doable only when the pipes begin to be laid.
The other option is to seek assistance from abroad to increase domestic generation capacity. The government of Pakistan has been unable to convince the United States to extend a nuclear deal similar to what was offered to, and accepted by the Indian government, hence our need to open new frontiers of energy sources is massive.
At the same time, it is evident that our energy sector has been badly managed, not only in terms of the failure of the Musharraf government to invest adequately in energy generation for over eight years, but also in terms of failure to resolve the inter-circular debt, as well as the huge transmission losses. Foreign donors, including the United States, have agreed to limited support for our energy sector. There is, therefore, an urgent need to clean our own house first by eliminating the circular debt, once and for all, and to bring transmission losses to the regional average which, in turn, may well provide the impetus to foreign donors to extend support to build large and expensive dams.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
Is TAPI through Iran possible?
Linear Mode
