Economic survey highlights

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ECONOMIC SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

ISLAMABAD (June 05 2010): The economy grew by a provisional 4.1 percent in the outgoing year, after a modest growth of 1.2 percent in 2008-09. However, the recovery is still fragile and the stabilisation needs to be consolidated so that the gains over the past two difficult years are not lost.

For the outgoing year, the agriculture sector grew an estimated 2 percent, against a target of 3.8 percent, and previous year's growth rate of 4 percent. While the Crops sub-sector declined 0.4 percent over the previous year, Livestock posted a healthy rise of 4.1 percent. Industrial output expanded by 4.9 percent, with Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) posting a 4.4 percent rate of growth. The Services sector grew 4.6 percent, as compared to 1.6 percent in 2008-09.

The Commodity Producing Sectors are estimated to have expanded at a 3.6 percent pace. The unemployment rate has increased to 5.5 percent (from 5.2 percent), largely due to the increase in urban unemployment to 7.1 percent (from 6.3 percent).

At current market prices, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has been estimated to have declined 0.6 percent, after recording a 5.5 percent increase in 2008-09. A substantial decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for the period also contributed to the decline in fixed investment in 2009-10. FDI accounts for a high share of gross fixed investment in Pakistan, with a share of close to 20 percent.

Overall CPI inflation accelerated to 13.3 percent year-on-year in April, with food inflation at 14.5 percent and non-food inflation at 12.2 percent. Core inflation, as measured by the rate of increase in prices of non-food, non-energy components of the CPI basket, registered an increase of 10.6 percent year-on-year. On a period-average basis, overall inflation was recorded at 11.5 percent for July to April. The State Bank of Pakistan expects the average CPI inflation for the current fiscal year to remain close to 12 percent.

Per capita income is estimated at Rs 87,810 ($1,051) in 2009-10, based on revised population numbers released by the Sub-Group II for the 10th 5-Year Peoples Plan 2010-15. Pakistan has achieved impressive initial gains in restoring macroeconomic stability in the aftermath of the balance of payments crisis of 2008. As a result of determined policy effort:

For 2009/10, the fiscal deficit is aimed to be kept in check at 5.1 percent of GOP, despite the absorption of larger-than-budgeted security-related spending. The external current account deficit was contained to 5.6 percent of GDP (US $9.3 billion) in 2008/09, from a high of 8.3 percent of GDP in 2007/08 (US $13.9 billion). The current account deficit is expected to decline to under 3 percent of GDP in the current year.

Foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt to nearly US $15 billion, from their low of under US $6 billion in October 2008, though much of the accumulation is due to releases from the IMF. Inflation declined from 25% in October 2008, to a recent low of 8.9% in October 2009, though it has accelerated sharply of recent and is showing persistence.

International credit rating agencies upgraded Pakistan (from CCC+ to B- by S&P, while Moody's revised its outlook to Stable [August 2009]). However, challenges in consolidating these early gains have emerged, with inflation in the economy reappearing, and fiscal pressures increasing.

02. AGRICULTURE The agriculture growth this year is estimated at 2.0 percent as compared with 4.0 percent during 2008-09. Cotton production at 12,698 thousand bales in 2009-10 has increased by 7.4 percent in comparison to 11,819 thousand bales of last year.

Wheat production is estimated at 23,864 thousand tons in 2009-10 as against 24,033 thousand tons last year, showing a decrease of 0.7 percent. Rice production has decreased from 6,952 thousand tons in 2008-09 to 6,883 thousand tons in 2009-10, showing a decrease of 1 percent. Sugarcane production has decreased by 1.3 percent in 2009-10 from 50.0 million tons in last year to 49.3 million tons in 2009-10.

Gram production at 571 thousand tons in 2009-10 has decreased by 23.0 percent in comparison to 741 thousand tons of last year. Maize production has decreased from 3,593 thousand tons in 2008-09 to 3,487 thousand tons in 2009-10, showing a decrease of 3.0 percent.

As regards minor crops, the production of masoor, onion and potatoes increased by 1.4 percent, 9.0 percent and 15.9 percent respectively. However, the production of mung,, mash and chillies decreased by 24.6 percent, 20.6 percent and 0.5 percent respectively. Agriculture credit disbursement of Rs 166.3 billion during July-March 2009-10 is higher by 9.5 percent, as compared to Rs 151.9 billion over last year.

The domestic production of fertilisers during the first nine months (July - March 2009-10) of the current fiscal year was up by 4.5 percent as compared with corresponding period last year. On the other hand, the import of fertiliser increased by 132.7 percent, the off-take of fertiliser also increased by 23.8 percent during the same period last year.

03. MANUFACTURING The Manufacturing sector performed well in the out going year with a growth rate of 5.2%. Production in large scale manufacturing (LSM) increased by 4.4 percent which was mainly caused by the improvement in sub groups of automobile (31.6%), tyre & tubes (29.5%), electronic (23.6%), fertiliser (10.9%) and pharmaceutical (7.6%).

The items which showed an increase in their production during the year were phosphate fertiliser (13.86%), cement (11.21%), cooking oil (7.17%), cotton (5.77%) and leather product (17.28%) etc. During the current fiscal year, cement production increased to 22.8 million tones as against 19.4 million tons last year or an increase of 17%.

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04. PUBLIC FINANCES The FBR revenue target for 2009-10 was set at Rs 1,380 billion taking into account expected growth in GOP, the rate of inflation, tax buoyancy and other key economic indicators. The target required a 20 percent Increase over last year's collection of Rs 1,157 billion.

Tax collection during the first ten months of the current fiscal year (July-April) stood at Rs 1,025.6 billion, net of refunds, which is 14 percent higher than the net collection of Rs 900.9 billion in the corresponding period of last year. Among the four federal taxes, the highest growth of 16 % has been recorded in the case of sales tax receipts, followed by direct tax (17%), customs (7.2 %) and federal excise (3.0%).

For July-April 2010, direct taxes have been a major source of FBR tax revenue collection, contributing 38 percent of total receipts. Net collection was estimated at Rs 389.5 billion. Indirect taxes grew by 12 percent during July-April 2009-10. Within indirect taxes, sales tax increased by 16 percent.

Custom duty collections have improved marginally, with collection exhibiting a growth of 7.2 percent, with a collection of Rs 125.7 billion as compared with Rs 117.2 billion during the same period last year. Major revenue sources have been POL, automobiles, edible oil, machinery, iron and steel products etc.

The net collection of federal excise stood at Rs 94.3 billion during July-April 2010 against Rs 91.6 billion in the corresponding period of last year, registering a growth of 3.0 percent. The major revenue spinners are cigarettes, cement, beverages, natural gas, POL products and services.

Total expenditure of Rs 2,877.4 billion was estimated for the full year, comprising of Rs 2,260.9 billion of current expenditure (79% of total), and Rs 616.5 billion of development expenditure, including net lending. Among the major expenditure heads, interest payments of Rs 647.1 billion were estimated, while Rs 342.9 billion was earmarked for Defence services. Rs 132 billion was allocated for subsidies, while the allocation for Grants amounted to Rs 313.7 billion.

Current expenditure was estimated to account for 79% of total spending, with development and net lending at 21% of the total. Debt servicing accounted for 27% of total expenditure in the federal budget 2009-10, a substantial decline of nearly 5 percentage points over 2008-09 actual. Share of defence services stood at 17.2%, while subsidies and grants totalled an estimated 11.8%

An important development in public finances is the recent agreement between the federal and provincial governments on the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award. The agreed sharing of the divisible pool will now take place on the basis of the following:

-- Population 82.0%

-- Poverty and backwardness 10.3%

-- Revenue collection / generation 5.0%

-- Inverse population density 2.7%

FBR is undergoing major reform in tax administration, with the establishment of the Inland Revenue Service (IRS). This will serve as a single entity within FBR by merging the tasks of all domestic taxes, namely sales tax, income tax and excise tax.

Similarly, to broaden the tax base and to correct the structural shortcomings in Pakistan's tax system and particularly to ensure horizontal equity in the taxation system, a broad-based Value Added Tax (VAT) is sought to be implemented in the country. Considerable work has been completed for the planned introduction of the VAT by July 1, 2010, subject to approval of national and provincial assemblies.

05. MONETARY SECTOR After peaking at 15% in November 2008, the central bank has eased the policy discount rate in steps to the current 12.5%, in response to a gradual easing of both headline as well as core inflation, and the containment of aggregate demand pressures in the economy.

The net bank credit to the government for financing commodity operations and budgetary support amounted to Rs 286.4 billion during July-23 April 2010 against Rs 239.5 billion during the same period last year.

Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system increased by Rs 49.7 billion during July-23 April FY10 after registering a significant decline of Rs 236.8 billion during the same period of FY09. This increase in NFA was mainly contributed by budgetary support of $745 million (approx Rs 62 billion) from the IMF. Other factors involved were a sharp unexpected rise in portfolio investments and persistent increase in workers remittances.

Stock of commodity finance fell by 56.1 billion during July-March 2010 compared to net increase of Rs 47.2 billion in the corresponding period last year. The YoY growth in broad money (M2) increased by 5.5 percent during July-23 April 2010 as compared to 1.5 percent during the same period last year. The increase in money supply was caused by a rise in both, currency in circulation as well as bank deposits.

Credit of Rs 76.7 billion to the public sector enterprise (PSE5), and decline in government borrowings worth Rs 56.1 billion for commodity operations, contributed Rs 233.9 billion to NDA growth during July-April FY10. Credit to PSEs increased by Rs 76.7 billion during July-23 April FY10 against an increase of Rs 142.2 billion in the same period last year.

Net domestic assets (NDA) of the banking system registered a decline by 5.1 percent during July-23 April 2010 compared to 7.6 percent during the same period last year. The slow pace in NDA of the banking system was due to the contraction in domestic demand. Moreover, fragile demand for private sector credit, low budgetary borrowing and slower credit off- take under commodity finance had restricted the expansion in NDA during July-23 April 10.

Due to the moderately improved industrial and business activity, banks cautiously restarted lending to the private sector following an easing in classification of bad loans. Credit to private sector grew by Rs 138.9 billion during July-April 2010, as compared to Rs 46.9 billion during the same period last year.

06. INFLATION Inflationary pressure intensified in 2009-10 on account of a spike in global commodity prices mainly relating to food and energy, in the early part of the current fiscal year. On a period average basis, overall inflation is reported at 11.5% versus 22.4% last year.

Food price inflation on average basis rose to 12.0% and that of non-food to 11.0%. The increase in food inflation during the current year 2009-10 is attributable to the increase in prices of some key food items like sugar, milk, meat, poultry and fresh vegetables. The uptrend in non-food inflation was mainly due to increase in transportation cost and increase in fuel, gas and electricity prices.

07. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Overall exports recorded a positive growth of 8.0 percent during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year against a decline of 3.0 percent in the same period of last year. In absolute terms, exports have increased from $14,703.3 million to $15,884.1 million in the period.

Imports during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year (2009-10) decline by 2.8 percent compared with the same period of last year, reaching to $28.1 billion. Import compression measures lowering domestic demand coupled with fall in international oil prices initially have started paying dividends and imports witnessed slowdown. Besides that depreciation of rupee had also played a significant role for lower imports during current fiscal year.

Imports of the petroleum group registered a positive growth of 1.3 percent and reached to $8,118.6 million. The increase in imports of the petroleum group has been due to rising quantity imported of petroleum products. The imports of telecom declined by 30.1 percent during July-April 2009-10. This is followed by imports of food group, which exhibits negative growth of 21.3 percent. Machinery group witnessed a negative growth of 10.6 percent during the period under consideration.

Trade deficit improved by 13.9 percent from $14,218 million in July-April 2008-09 to $12,238 million during July-April 2009-10. Unlike last year when decline in trade deficit was mainly contributed by massive fall in import expenditure due to decline in international prices, this year's improvement in trade deficit was broad based, as both the exports and imports contributed in this decline. Services account deficit shrank by 39.0 percent during July-April 2009-10 to reach $1.96 billion.

Financial account contracted from $4,333 million to $3,703 million during July-April 2009-10 against corresponding period of last year. Exchange Rate of Pak-Rupee vs. US $during July-April 2009-10 witnessed a depreciation of 3.9 percent. Worker remittances amounted to $7,306.7 million in July-April 2009-10 as against $6,355.6 million in corresponding period last year, thereby showing an increase of 15.0 percent. Pakistan's total liquid foreign exchange reserves amounted to $15.0 billion by the end of April 2010.

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08. PUBLIC DEBT Total Public Debt (TPD) posted a growth of 12.2 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year and reached Rs 8,160 billion at the end of March 2010. This increase in the stock of public debt is significantly lower than the rapid increase of 22 percent in the previous fiscal year. The TPD-to-GDP ratio for 2009-10 rested at 55.6 percent as of March 31, 2010.

The domestic currency component increased by Rs 631 billion or 16.3 percent to end at Rs 4,491 billion in comparison to Rs 3,860 billion of end-June 2009. There was an addition of Rs 253 billion in the stock of foreign currency debt. It is interesting to note that in contrast to FY09, the increase in the stock of TPD during the current year has mostly been through domestic sources.

Out of the total increase in TPD, Rs 148 billion or 17 percent is attributed to depreciation of national currency against the United States Dollar during July 2009-March 2010 as PKR lost 4.2 percent of its value during this period. Servicing on public debt has aggregated to Rs 640.2 billion at end-March 2010.

As percent of the projected GOP for 2009-10, the public debt servicing is now 4.4 percent. Interest payments of Rs 428.5 billion have been incurred on domestic debt, whereas Rs 45 billion of the payment was on account of foreign debt. Repayments of about Rs 166.7 billion were made to retire maturing foreign currency debt.

During the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2009-10, Pakistan's external debt and liabilities increased by US $2 billion or 3.8 percent. The outstanding stock as of end-March FY10 stood at US $54 billion as opposed to US $52 billion at the end of FY09. In absolute terms, the first three quarters of FY10 have witnessed the lowest Increase in the stock of EDL during the last three years. EDL as a percentage of GDP has declined to 31.1 percent; a reduction of 100 bps in nine months.

Foreign currency debt flows during the year have been dominated by disbursements under the IMF SBA. Prior to recent releases, the third disbursement of SDR 766.7 million (US $1.2 billion) was made on August 7, 2009, followed by a fourth disbursement of the same amount on December 23, 2009.

The relative strength of the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, and Pound Sterling has had a positive impact on Pakistan's EDL. During the first nine months of FY10, Pakistan witnessed a translational gain of approximately US $242 million. Servicing of external debt and liabilities during the first nine months of FY10 amounted to US $4.3 billion. Out of this amount, US $3.6 billion was for principal repayments during the period, while the interest cost on external debt and liabilities reached US $771 million.

In the global perspective, the reduction in employment and income opportunities since 2007 has led to a considerable slow down in the process towards poverty reduction.

According to a UN estimate, during 2008-09, due to international economic crisis, between 47 and 84 million more people have remained poor or will have fallen into poverty in developing countries and economies in transition. In the outlook for 2010, the economic recovery is expected to encourage a resumption of faster declining trend in global poverty.

Low GDP growth in 2008-09 (1.2 percent), high and rising food inflation, rising unemployment and increasing energy prices might have adverse impact on average Pakistani household. Worker's remittances to Pakistan are showing a robust upward trend adding to the socio economic wellbeing of many households in terms of consumption, employment and investment.

Social safety nets have been strengthened. Benazir Income Support Programme is being streamlined. Such programme will directly help the poor. Pro-poor spending is significantly rising over recent years; from 3.77 percent of GDP in FY 2001-02 to 7.46 percent of GDP in FY 2008-09 which remained well above the projected expenditure of Rs 760 billion for the year.

Agriculture and services sector are the largest employment providers. Agriculture which has the highest share in employment has already improved in terms of growth in 2008-09 and is expected to grow at the rate of 2 percent in 2010. Services sector is also expected to recover and show a growth rate of 4.56 percent.

10. EDUCATION The overall literacy rate (10 years & above) which was 56 percent in 2007-08 has increased to 57 percent in 2008-09, indicating a 1.8 percent increase over the same period last year. Male literacy rate (10 years & above) remained the same at 69 percent in 2007-08 and 2008-09 while it increased from 44 to 45 percent for females during the same period. Literacy remains higher in urban areas (74 percent) than in rural areas (48 percent) during 2008-09.

Province wise literacy data of PSLM (2008-09) shows Punjab stood at 59 percent, Sindh (59 percent), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (50 percent) and Balochistan (45 percent). According to the Ministry of Education, there are currently 226,552 institutions in the country. The overall enrolment is recorded at 37.18 million with teaching staff of 1.37 million.

11. HEALTH AND NUTRITION At present, there are 968 hospitals, 4813 dispensaries, 5345 basic health units and 906 maternity and child health centres in Pakistan.

With availability of 139.555 doctors, 9822 dentists, 69.313 nurses and 103708 hospital beds in the country by 2009-10, the population and health facilities ratio works out at 1183 persons per doctors, 16914 persons per dentist, 2383 persons per nurse and 1593 persons per hospital bed which compares well with the other developing countries.

During 2009-10, 35 basic health units and 7 rural health centres have been constructed. While 15 rural health centres and 45 basic health units have been upgraded.

Some 4500 doctors, 350 dentists, 3200 nurses and 4500 paramedics have completed their academic courses and 4000 new beds have been added in the hospitals. Some 100,000 Lady Health Workers (LHWs) have been trained and deployed mostly in the rural areas. Moreover, some 7 million children have been immunised and 19 million packets of ORS distributed.

Various health programmes with a special focus on major public health problems have been carried out. These include cancer treatment, AIDS prevention and Malaria Control Programme. The total outlay on health is budgeted at Rs 79.0 billion (Rs 38.0 billion development and Rs 41.0 billion current expenditure) which is equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP.

12. CAPITAL MARKETS 2009-10 started with a recovery in the Capital Markets following the global financial crisis. The KSE 100 Index crossed the 10,000 points barrier on 12th March, 2010; however it could not be sustained. Aggregate Market Capitalisation increased by Rs 559 billion, to Rs 2693 billion as of 28th May 2010.

Net Inflow of foreign Investment in Pakistan from July 2009-March 2010 was US $431.9 million which was a large increase considering the negative foreign portfolio Investment in the last fiscal year. Corporate profitability declined overall in FY10, but certain large companies exhibited considerable profits. The sectors of Fuel & Energy as well as Bank & Financial Institutions made gains.

Four auctions of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) were carried out in FY10 - Rs 52.8 billion worth of PIBs were issued with those of 3 & 5 years maturities amounting to Rs 13.8 billion resulting in a surplus of Rs 39 billion. Three 3-year Ijara Sukuks were issued from July-December 09. Rs 14.4 billion were raised against the total target of RS. 10 billion.

The National Savings Scheme (NSS) attracted Rs 169.39 billion in July2009-March 2010. Behbood Saving Certificate, Special Savings Certificates (Registered) as well as Regular Income Certificates were the forerunner products. The deposit rates for some National Saving Schemes were reviewed. Three TFCs were floated from July 2009-March 2010.

The Deliverable Futures contract market was re-launched in view of the market need of a derivative product. Central Depository Company (CDC)'s regulatory framework was amended by SECP for the transfers of the Securities whereby only transfer of market based transactions & other prescribed transfers after fulfilling Pre-requisites were allowed.

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13. ENERGY

Crude Oil Production of Crude oil per day has decreased to 65,245.7 barrels during July-March 2009-10 from 66,531.5 barrels per day during the same period last year, showing a decrease of 1.9 percent. On average, the transport sector consumes 51.8 percent of the petroleum products, followed by power sector (33.9 percent), industry (9.6 percent), household (1.5 percent), other government (2.1 percent), and agriculture (1.0 percent) during last 10 years ie 1999-00 to 2008-09.

Natural Gas The average production of natural gas per day stood at 4,048.8 million cubic feet during July-March 2009-10, as compared to 3,986.5 million cubic feet over the same period last year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent.

On average, the power sector consumes 37.5 percent of gas, followed by Industrial sector (21.1 percent), fertiliser (18.8 percent), household (16.5 percent), transport (2.7 percent), commercial sector (2.6 percent) and cement (0.9 percent) during the period.

Electricity The total installed generation capacity has increased to 20,190 MW during July-March 2009-10 from 19,780 MW during the same period last year.

Total installed capacity of Wapda stood at 11,399 MW during July-March 2009-10 of which, hydel accounts for 57.5 percent or 6,555 MW, thermal accounts for 42.5 percent or 4,844 MW. The number of villages electrified increased to 147,038 by March 2010 from 133,463 by March 2009, showing an increase of 10.0 percent.

CNG Presently, some 3,116 CNG stations are operating in the country. By March 2010 about 2.0 million vehicles were converted to CNG.

14. TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION Pakistan has a road network covering 25,9618 kilometers including 179,290 KM of high type roads and 80,328 KM of low type roads. National Highway Authority has targeted completion of different projects with total length of well above 2000 kilometers during 2010.

In Pakistan, Railway for the year 2009-10 (July-March), there has been fall in growth rate of both in passenger traffic and freight traffic because of law and order situation and less overall availability of locomotive for freight traffic.

The number of passenger carried out by PIA international sector increased by 1.0 percent over previous year and the overall revenues of the airline increased to Rs 94.6 billion during the current year 2009-10. Karachi Port Trust handled a total of 20.5 million tones of cargo during the course of year.

Port Qasim Authority handled 18.8 million tones cargo during the current financial year 2009-10, showing an increase of 5 %. Up to February-2010, Cellular subscribers reached 96.2 million depicting a net addition of 1,889,199 subscribers (July-February 10) with the average of 209,911 per month.

15. ENVIRONMENT Environmental degradation is fundamentally linked to poverty in Pakistan. Poverty is the main impediment in dealing with the environment-related problems. There is an increasing demand on the already depleting natural resource base of the country. Since poor are directly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods whether agriculture, hunting, forestry, fisheries, etc. Poverty combined with a rapidly increasing population and growing urbanisation is leading to intense pressures on the environment. Therefore, there has been a dire need to work on poverty alleviation. In this regard, Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) launched by the present government will certainly have positive impact on poverty alleviation and in releasing stress on natural resources and environment.

The Mid-Term Development Framework: 2005-2010 (MTDF 2005-10) has been developed in line with the National Environment Action Plan (NEAP) objectives, and focuses its four core areas ie, clean air, clean water; solid waste management, and Ecosystem management. The Plan has been prepared keeping in mind Pakistan's experience with such initiatives in the last decade; the current capacity to undertake planning, implementation and oversight and the identified needs for improvement in such capacity.

The main causes of air pollution are abrupt increase in number of vehicles and inefficient automotive technology, use of unclean fuels, uncontrolled emission of industrial units, emission of brick kilns, burning of garbage and presence of loose dust. Motorcycles and rickshaws, due to their two stroke engines, are the most inefficient in burning fuel and contribute most to emissions. The two wheeler industry is performing very fast in Pakistan and it has increased by 143.0 percent in 2009-10 when compared with the year 2000-01.

Pakistan has become the largest user of CNG in the world, as per the statistics issued by International Association of National Gas Vehicles to use CNG. Presently, 3105 CNG stations are operating in the country and 2.4 million vehicles are using CNG as fuel. Use of CNG as fuel in transport sector has observed a quantum leap, replacing traditional fuels and has helped a lot in lowering the pollution load in many urban centres. After the successful CNG programme for petrol replacement, the government is now looking to replace the more polluting "diesel fuel" in the road transport sector. The government has planned to offer incentives to investors to introduce CNG buses In the major cities of the country.

The National Drinking Water Policy has been approved by the Cabinet in order to provide adequate quality of drinking water to the population in an efficient and sustainable manner. This policy aims to provide a guiding framework to address the key Issues and challenges facing Pakistan in the provision of sustainable access to safe drinking water.

The existing forest resources are under severs pressure to meet the fuel wood and timber needs of the country and wood based industries including housing, sports goods, matches, boat making and furniture industry in the country. There is need to increase the area under tree cover not only to meet the material needs of the growing population but also to enhance the environmental and ecological services provided by the forest. Under Millennium Development Goals of Forestry Sector, Pakistan is committed to increase forest cover from existing 5.2% to 5.7% by the year 2011 and 6% by the year 2015.

16. POPULATION, LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT The latest revised estimates of Pakistan's population stood at 173.54 million in 2009-10. At the existing trend the total population will reach 177.1 million in 2011 and 210.1 million by 2020 (Estimates and projections by Sub-group II for the 10th 5-year People's Plan 2010-15). Life expectancy in Pakistan is estimated at 64.1 years.

About 3 million labour force is estimated as unemployed in 2009-10, with an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent (2008-09). Agriculture remains the dominant source of employment in Pakistan. Manufacturing employs 13.3%, trade 16.5% & services 11.2 percent of the labour force.

To cope with the evolving demographic challenge the National Population Policy 2010 seeks to reduce fertility level from 3.7 (2009) to 3.2 births per Woman by the year 2015. Overseas employment is being encouraged by the Ministry of Labour, Manpower & Overseas Pakistanis. More than US $6 billion would be earned during the next budget year.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]