Based on cost factor: Real GDP to grow to $196.58bn in 2010-11

[Neo]

Based on cost factor: Real GDP to grow to $196.58bn in 2010-11

* Govt estimates GDP growth rate to be 4%, exchange rate Rs 86.5 per dollar

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: The government estimates suggest that the real gross domestic product (GDP) based on cost factor would grow to $196.589 billion with a GDP growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 per dollar during the next fiscal year 2010-11, official sources informed here on Monday.

These estimates are going to be discussed and finalised at a meeting of the Medium Term Budgetary Framework scheduled on April 28, which will be presided over by the Planning Commission’s deputy chairman.

Real GDP: It was projected to post a growth to $176.965 billion at the time of the announcement of the budget 2009-10 with a growth rate at 3 percent and exchange rate at Rs 83.83 a dollar. However, revised estimates suggest that real GDP would post a growth of 3.3 percent with exchange rate of Rs 84.7 a dollar and is expected to reach $177.556 billion by the end of the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10. The government estimates suggest that the real GDP based on cost factor would grow to $196.589 billion with a GDP growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 per dollar during the next fiscal year 2010-11.

Real GDP was projected to grow to Rs 14.835 trillion with a growth rate at 3 percent at the time the announcement of the budget, however, revised estimates suggest that the real GDP would grow to Rs 15.039 trillion by June 30, 2010 with a growth rate at 3.3 percent. It has been projected that the real GDP would grow to Rs 17.005 trillion with GDP growth target at 4 percent in the upcoming fiscal year 2010-11, the sources further informed.

Nominal GDP: The nominal GDP was projected in the budget 2009-10 to grow to $168.400 billion with a growth rate of 3 percent. However, revised estimates suggest that GDP growth in the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10 would be higher to 3.3 percent of the GDP and nominal GDP to reach at $170.236 billion by June 30, 2010. It has been projected that nominal GDP growth with a growth rate of 4 percent and exchange rate at Rs 86.5 a dollar would reach $187.236 billion by June 2011.

Nominal GDP was projected to grow to Rs 14.117 trillion at the time of the announcement of the budget for the ongoing fiscal year and revised estimates suggest that nominal GDP would reach Rs 14.419 trillion by June 30, 2010. It has been projected that nominal GDP would be increased to Rs 16.196 trillion by June 2011.

GDP deflator: GDP deflator had been projected at Rs 248.6 billion or 10 percent at the time of the announcement of the budget for the ongoing fiscal year 2009-10, however, revised estimates suggest that GDP deflator would be Rs 253.2 billion or 12.03 percent by the end of the ongoing fiscal year. GDP deflator has been estimated at Rs 273.5 billion or 8 percent in the next fiscal year 2010-11.

Exchange rate: Exchange rate at the time of the announcement of the budget was estimated at Rs 83.83 a dollar, however, revised estimates suggest that exchange rate has been recorded at Rs 84.7 a dollar and it has also been projected that the exchange rate in the next fiscal year would be Rs 86.5 a dollar in the country.

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