Chinese subs irk US Thinktanks
May 1, 2010
“It concerns me to see China going for these submarines,” said Robert D. Kaplan, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, in a tele-conference with journalists.
Kaplan earlier authored an article, “The Geography of Chinese Power,” (May/June 2010, Foreign Affairs), saying that the shifting balance of power in the Eastern hemisphere will undoubtedly “exacerbate U.S.-Chinese tensions in the years ahead.”
Kaplan argued that U.S.-Chinese tensions will rise as China expands its influence to acquire resources to fuel its growth, and support the rising living standards of its immense population.
“China’s military threat is only indirect, to limit the power of the U.S. while trying to raise the living standards of its population which is one-fifth of humanity,” Kaplan said.
“Cold War was quite stable except Vietnam, Korean conflicts,” Kaplan told the listeners, adding, “Now we are seeing naval powers of Koreans, Japanese and Chinese.”
Kaplan compared the decline of military power in Europe to Asia, saying, “These areas of Asia are still in nationalistic mode where having a military is not a matter of shame as it is in Europe.”
On the question of Sino-Indian relations, Kaplan predicted, “As China moves South, India moves to East and to the former colonies of British Raj and that will bring a lot of tension in future.”
Energy and natural resources hungry China is expanding its influence in Africa and on the ever-tightening Chinese iron grip on African resources, Kaplan said, “China is becoming a political player (in Africa) with no particular focus except to get the resources.”
“Niger is the latest example: The tiny African nation saw a coup d’état. Chinese had a great relationship with the former government (under an autocratic president Mamadou Tandia) while after the coup, Chinese are very friendly with the new regime (military officials who ousted the president),” Kaplan told journalists, adding, “shows they play both ways.”
American ally Japan is juggling with a new multi-party system after having a one-party system for a long time and as the new party struggles to learn how to govern, Kaplan said, “China is silently reaching out to Japan saying that you don’t need Americans and we will give you protection.”
Kaplan cautioned, “Americans are not going to have a large black and white military presence in Japan,” with withdrawal of American troops on the cards.
On a question about piracy, Kaplan was positive about it, saying, “Good thing about piracy is it brings nations together … Somalia has longest shoreline and China has dispatched its fleets thus they are getting a hands-on experience to operate those fleets far from home.”
Today China still depends on the U.S. for patrolling international commercial sea-lanes but in future it will start aiming for such coverage from its own naval forces.
Kaplan cited from personal experience, describing these “far from home” experiences for China as very valuable, noting, “throughout history, the nations which have built up economies, have also built military power to guard their economic power.”
Iranian nuclear programs and global efforts headed by the U.S. to contain those, might not go far as “China is hungry for energy and natural resources and China has an appetite for good Iranian relations,” cautioned Kaplan.
Chinese subs irk US Thinktanks
Chinese subs irk US Thinktanks
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