China could overtake US by 2020: PWC

[Neo]

China could overtake US by 2020: PWC

LONDON (January 22 2010): China could overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy as early as 2020, a top business consultancy said on Thursday, underlining the "seismic change" in global economic power. PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) also said in its report that by 2030 the top 10 world economies could be China, followed by the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France and Britain.

The current 10 largest economies, according to 2008 data from the International Monetary Fund, are the United States, Japan, China, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain and Brazil. "These projects suggest that China could be the largest economy in the world as early as 2020 and is likely to be some way ahead of the US by 2030," John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PWC, said in the report.

"India could grow even faster than China after 2020, however, and will also move rapidly up the global GDP (gross domestic product) rankings" because of its younger and faster growing population as opposed to China, he added. The report also pointed to an increasing share of global GDP taken up by China and India, compared to the United States and the European Union.

The proportion in 2010 will be 20 percent for the US, 21 percent for the EU, 13 percent for China and five percent for India, PWC said. But by 2030 that will have changed to 16 percent for the US, 15 percent for the EU, 19 percent for China and nine percent for India, it added. Jim O'Neill, chief global economist for US investment bank Goldman Sachs, forecast last November that China will overtake the United States by 2027 - 14 years earlier than a previous Goldman Sachs forecast of 2041 made in 2003.

[wtf]

That's interesting. The consensus was that China would equal US by 2041, which date was then revised to 2039 and to 2035. The prediction also was that by 2015 China would beat Japan. It was commonly believed that India is 10-20 years behind China in growth rates.

Turns out that China will beat Japan this year, so it is possible that it can beat US by 2020.

It is interesting to further extrapolate this data and imagine a world where each Chinese man has the same amount of wealth as an American. China has 3 times the population as US, so in that case China would have 3 times the GDP of US. Wonder if we'll see such a world in our lifetime.

[Neo]

China has already replaced Japan as world second largest economy (real GDP) and Germany as world largest exporter. Just a matter of time that she'll become a high-tech power house and will become overall super power.

[vinod2070]

Interesting times.

I hope China behaves as a responsible power. I have great respect for Chinese people and civilization and hopefully this trend portends a rising Asia that can offer a counter to the Western domination.

Asian countries need to find a mechanism to work together. Between themselves and with others.

[Neo]

There's no reason to believe that she won't. China doesn't have a capitalist or imperialistic past, she's not a war monger either unlike other super powers.
Her foreign policy has so far been pragmatic and trade friendly. She's largely considered as a friend to the developping world.

I think world needs a super power like China, now more than ever.

[vinod2070]

Originally Posted by Neo

There's no reason to believe that she won't. China doesn't have a capitalist or imperialistic past, she's not a war monger either unlike other super powers.
Her foreign policy has so far been pragmatic and trade friendly. She's largely considered as a friend to the developping world.

I think world needs a super power like China, now more than ever.

China has fought wars with several of her neighbors. That includes Vietnam, Russia. Korea and others.

She sustains despotic regimes in N. Korea and Myanmar. She supported the Sudanese when Darfur genocide was going on.

The record in the Xinxiang and Tibet is also well known and the Chinese claim almost all of Central Asia AFAIK.

I don't want to be critical here. China's rise seems inevitable. What happens when she has real power is something to be seen.

[Neo]

Fair enough, compare that to USA and USSR. How many wars did these country fight and how many times did they brought the world to the brink of nuclear war?

You are referring to Darfur, what about Israel?? Any conflict zone in the world gets fully embargoed yet USA rushed to send fresh ammunition, mainly cluster bombs when Lebanon was being raped by Israeli forces. The world would later learn that cluster bombs were used against civilians which is a direct violation of the Geneva Convention.

China fought wars with her neighbors to settle border disputes or to support marxism but never got involved into a full war over seas. Unlike USA or Russia she doesn not have an imperial agenda.

[Neo]

And wasn't it Russia who armed Serbs who later massacred thousands of muslims in Bosnia? Sebrenica rings a bell?

There's no stain on China's modern history, thats my point.

[vinod2070]

Originally Posted by Neo

And wasn't it Russia who armed Serbs who later massacred thousands of muslims in Bosnia? Sebrenica rings a bell?

There's no stain on China's modern history, thats my point.

There is. Tibet, Xinxiang, Tienanmen square!

Sudan was also recent enough to be considered modern history.

Anyway till now China didn't have a great power. It is building that now but it will still not go unchallenged like it was for USA/USSR etc.

Once you have that kind of power, the behavior can change drastically. China is not going to be an unchallenged sole Superpower for decades.

[Selma Shirazi]

Originally Posted by vinod2070

There is. Tibet, Xinxiang, Tienanmen square!

Tibet is Chinese territory and Tienamen Square an internal affair.

Sudan was also recent enough to be considered modern history.

Not as recent as the Lebanon genocide by Israel supported by USA.

Anyway till now China didn't have a great power. It is building that now but it will still not go unchallenged like it was for USA/USSR etc.

Once you have that kind of power, the behavior can change drastically. China is not going to be an unchallenged sole Superpower for decades.

That remains to be seen how she develops and if there are any changes in her foreign policy. I too share the views with Neo that China is not an agressive country but you never know what changes future and her new status brings.