PakistanTalk Forum

Neo · 12-01-2009, 09:21 PM

On August 14, 1947, the state of Pakistan was born. Like all births, it would prove to be a painful, messy and jarring affair. The subcontinent was effectively ripped at the seams into a Muslim East Pakistan and a Hindu West Bengal after 89 years under the British Raj.

National assets like the British Indian Army, the Indian Civil Service, railways, central treasury and other administrative services had to be divided accordingly. The divorce proved chaotic. People suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of the line. Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus were forced to move. The riots that followed this massive upheaval led to the deaths of an estimated half a million people and rendered millions homeless. During the process, the regions of Jammu and Kashmir remained undecided on which side to join; an issue that remains contested today and is one of the currents running deep in the India and Pakistan rivalry.

Pakistan has laid claims on Jammu and Kashmir because the majority of their population is Muslim while India maintains the claim over the regions based on an October 1947 instrument of accession that says the Maharaja agreed to join India.

The Kashmir issue would lead India and Pakistan to fight wars in 1947 and 1965. In 1971, another war erupted when India supported the Bengalis which led East Pakistan to become present day Bangladesh. Violence would again come in 1989, when an armed Islamic resistance emerged against Indian rule in the Kashmir valley with some wanting independence while others calling for accession with Pakistan.

In the 61 years after the partition, stability for Pakistan is an elusive dream. The country stands on unstable ground in both its internal and international affairs. Pakistan's economy is in tatters and the Taliban insurgency from neighboring Afghanistan has only worsened. Its politics is no better; the story of a nation mired in a litany of violence, corruption and scandal.

Pakistan suffers from a budget deficit expected to widen to 4.9 percent of gross domestic product by June 2010, high inflation and rapidly growing employment that was estimated in 2008 to have reached 13.6 percent. The country's economic duress is a result of rising commodity and food prices, exacerbated by election spending by the previous government, according to Gareth Price, head of the Asia Program at the British think tank Chatham House.

The death of the popular opposition leader Benazir Bhutto in December 2007 and the ongoing war with the Taliban are just two more prominent examples of the troubles the nation is facing. Bhutto had previously served as the country's premier twice from 1988-1990 and 1993-1996 and was assassinated shortly after returning from exile while attending a political rally.

This would ultimately lead to the resignation of Pervez Musharraf in August 2008. In September 2008, Pakistan People's Party leader and Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, was elected as Pakistan's new president. His election did nothing to stem the violence.

In May of 2009, the Pakistani military began an offensive in the Swat Valley, to root out Taliban extremists who had occupied the valley and set up essentially a "state within a state." This action concluded a short-lived agreement between the Taliban and the Pakistani government in which it was agreed the Taliban would police the area in return for giving up arms. In reality, Taliban leaders declared that bearing arms was permitted under the Koran, installed strict Sharia law, demolished schools, hospitals and beat and shot civilians who were accused of being out of compliance with Sharia.

The redeployment of troops to the area comes as Pakistan has acknowledged that its main threat comes from internal insurgents, such as the Taliban, and not from its traditional foe, India. This, coupled with assurances both by the Indian government and the United States concerning Indian intentions, permitted Pakistan to redeploy troops away from the heavily militarized eastern border with India, to the north, where the main threat of Taliban expansion is based.

During all this turmoil, China would remain Pakistan's constant ally by supplying military arms, jets and nuclear energy technology. It has been an enduring friendship based on strategic and geographic interests.

China's support of Pakistan is an indirect way of containing India. "Traditionally, the driving factor for China was a hedge against India, and for Pakistan it was gaining access to civilian and military resources," Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert and professor at the University of Michigan told the Council of Foreign Relations.

Given how much oil is the reason behind world affairs nowadays and China's aggressive pursuit of it, one has to ask if the same motivations apply for its relationship with Pakistan as well. China is building the Gwadar Port in Pakistan located in the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz in a move that will give it access to the Indian Ocean and unlock its Western regions.

China's access to the area will secure its oil supplies shipped from the Persian Gulf in anticipation of ballooning gas needs in the next decade. According to the article, China's Energy Quest and the Indian Ocean, eighty percent of China-bound oil and liquid natural gas passes through the Indian Ocean.

China will be able to access Iranian oil through Pakistan via a pipeline running the Karakoram Highway. The highway begins at China's Xinjiang running through the northern areas of Pakistan. The pipeline should serve as a complement to China's oil deals with Russia and Myanmar.

This is where China bumps into India. India also has escalating energy needs as its economy develops and it will be scrambling against China for control over the same oil resources in the region. For India, a shorter route for oil also includes access to Myanmar's resources.

China is designing two nuclear reactors for Pakistan to be housed in the country's Chasma Nuclear Power complex in Punjab. The Chinese state-run Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute has begun designing the third and fourth generators for the Pakistan complex.

Of the first two, one is currently being installed and will be operational by next year, while the first has been online and linked into Pakistan's energy grid since 2000. The new reactors will have a capacity of 325 megawatts each, while improvements and upgrading of the first reactor will also be taking place. China's Shanxi Diesel Engine Heavy Industry Company has already provided the emergency diesel generation system for Chasma, while a third company, China Zhongyuan Engineering, is the general contractor.

When India and Pakistan were on the brink of war recently, Pakistan had requested China, as their ally and India's largest trading partner, to intervene and restore peace in the region. China has also not been shy in economically supporting Pakistan in infrastructure, water and power projects.

Ties between the two nations had mellowed in 2007 during the height of China's growth and Taliban activity in Pakistan; however following the India-U.S. nuclear deal and the Mumbai attacks, China-Pakistan ties have again strengthened. The two countries recently implemented a free trade agreement they signed in 2006.

Pakistan opened 11 service sectors to Chinese companies when their free trade agreement was implemented this past October. In exchange, China allowed six service segments to open for Pakistani businesses following World Trade Organization regulations. China is keen to improve trade relations with Pakistan because of its vital role as a strategic security partner.

From 2003 to 2007, Pakistan trade with China reported a total deficit of US$7.5 billion. In the period from 2006 to 2007, Pakistan exports to China reached US$575 million while imports from China amounted to US$3.5 billion.

In 2008, bilateral trade reached US$6.98 billion, with imports from China amounting to US$5.97 billion. Bilateral trade is expected to reach US$15 billion by 2011.

China-Pakistan relations will only strengthen in the future, possibly surpassing even U.S.-Pakistan relations. China serves as a stabilizing force in a volatile region and it cannot afford to see a collapse of Central Asia and risk the spread of militancy in Xinjiang and elsewhere in its Himalayan and Western regions.

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