Bangladesh should not be caught napping

[MBI Munshi]

Enayet Rasul Bhuiyan

'Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.' So it was stated by the renowned nineteenth century American columnist and orator, Wendell Phillips. The high relevance of these words of wisdom spring to mind in relation to the present state of tensions in the Myanmar-Bangladesh borders. This is not to say that Bangladesh authorities are completely unmindful of the need to be watchful in relation to what ought to be Myanmar's eyebrow-raising military build ups in areas too close to its borders for comfort. The point is that Bangladesh for no fault on its part has been suffering from only adversarial relations with Myanmar with no signs that the generals in Rangoon really wish to abide by the rules which are respected internationally.

That is why there is the need for extra caution on the part of Bangladesh. Myanmar cannot be trusted with sensible or pacific intentions. If it were otherwise, then it would not push into Bangladesh as many as 300,000 Muslims of Myanmar origin from its Arakan state in 1988 after inflicting tortures on them in a manner not much different from the ethnic cleansing of the Muslims in Bosnia by the Serbs. The fact is that Myanmar is no democracy or a pluralistic society where clamour for human rights, adherence to international norms and standards, etc., have any chance of a patient observance. It is one of the few Stalinist type bastions of totalitarian governance in the world today. Ruled by a bunch of xenophobic generals whose instincts are further laced by ugly racialism, Myanmar today is a pariah state in the international sense. But the country has the largest military in south-east Asia and the fanaticism of its leaders to be guided by no reason in dealings with outsiders, would make it dangerous for any neigbouring country to be tangled in a bitter confrontation with it.

Thus, Bangladesh needs to adopt carefully studied strategies and not always conventional ones based on assumptions of responsible and duly responsive reactions from Myanmar like the rest of the law-abiding members of the international community. It would be foolhardy to think that Myanmar has backed away on an enduring basis from its confrontation with Bangladesh in grabbing territories in the sea, also claimed by the latter. The backing away from the naval confrontation was only a transient tactic. Notwithstanding its huge army, the Myanmar navy is a fledgling one compared to Bangladesh. Therefore, it withdrew from the spot but did not in the least abandon the intention to reappear. Rather, it seems the pinched vanity of the generals in Rangoon have made them more grimly committed to teach Bangladesh a lesson.

Reports appeared in the Bangladesh and international media as well about the frenzy in Rangoon to specially go for a fast military build up against Bangladesh. What Myanmar could not accomplish in the sea because of the relative weakness of its navy, it may seek to compensate on the ground through its army that outnumbers Bangladesh by nearly three to one.

Reports speak of very energetic activities of Myanmar in the Bangladesh-Myanmar frontiers. Roads and other infrastructures including new airfields are being built with remarkable speed along with vast increases in the presence of regulars of the Myanmar army at these places. Reportedly, Myanmar is building a new naval cum military base at a place called Mutek, facing the Bay of Bengal and very near Bangladesh. Heavy military arsenals have been also mobilised. The preparations are certainly not of a defensive type but smack of aggressive intentions. It could well be that Rangoon would set the stage for a direct clash on the land borders to avenge their humiliation on the sea.

A few weeks ago, the Myanmar army turned up in Mongdu and Alitanjo to evict ethnic Muslim Rohingyas from their ancestral homeland. They forcibly acquired around 1,000 acres of arable land and distributed it among the Buddhist citizens of Mongdu town. The authority has also told the Rohingyas to go to the hills or to take refuge in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi authorities have noted a small but regular infiltration of Rhohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh in recent months. They speak of terrors again being unleashed on them by Rangoon's troops as in 1988 with the aim of completely flushing the Arakan clean of Rohingya Muslims who have been living there for centuries and should be entitled to be treated as full Myanmar citizens like the others.

It is very likely that the generals are out to create an intolerable situation over the Rohingyas and at some stage to draw the Bangladesh army into a direct conflict over the issue. Once they get this opportunity, they could be planning to invade Bangladesh and hold territory and bargain it for return on the pledge that Bangladesh would drop its claim on the Bay of Bengal that concerns them.

Thus, Bangladesh has every reason to be extremely wary about this hostile posture on the part of Myanmar. Another intelligence failure of the type that aided the BDR mutiny, ought not to create a situation when the generals in Rangoon would get a ripe fruit for plucking from the unpreparedness on the part of Bangladesh. However, this is not to advocate that Bangladesh should engage in a heavy military build-up of its own to foil any adventurous move on the part of Rangoon. But it should deploy and maintain adequate forces on the ground immediately in areas where attacks from across the border, may occur. Vital infrastructures like the Kaptai hydel project, Eastern Refinery and other major installations which appear vulnerable, must be protected against any surprise attack.

Bangladesh should have no incentive for starting a war with any of its neighbours. It has many things to lose from any war such as the gains from its enviable economic growth over the years, damages to its infrastructures and various resources . The political system of Bangladesh with an elective, democratic and accountable system of governance, also cannot admit military aggression of any sort. But forced to it, Bangladesh must not keep itself exposed and unguarded either from any reckless move on the part of an unconscionable neighbour.

But the highest stress on its part to counter Myanmar's aggressiveness should be put on diplomacy. China has the greatest influence on Myanmar at present. China also is a friend of Bangladesh. Bangladesh must use its China card to restrain the generals in Rangoon from indulging in any misadventure against it. It should also seek to apply all other forms of international pressure on Myanmar to rethink its aggressive plans against Bangladesh.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.co.../13/75900.html

[leonblack08]

This time China will not back us if there is a conflict.Reason being,AL govt. getting closer and closer to India in terms of military,by the name of South Asian task force.In addition,Myanmar provides gas and oil to China.So they are of more strategic interest to China than us.
Recently they also refused to invest on some projects,which shows Chinese aren't happy with our Govt.
So we have two options open.One to go for rebuilding BD-China relation.And the other is to go completely into US bloc.Which will make us suffer later.

[leonblack08]

Dealing with the Generals

Bangladesh's foreign policy on its eastern neighbour needs to be changed

Ahmede Hussain

For the last 47 years, since General Ne Win usurped power in a bloodless coup, Myanmar (Burma) has remained an epitome of dictatorship. The country is run by a clique of Generals who, armed with the money generated from lucrative timber and rice trade, has completely disregarded the plight of their poor subjects. Under their rule Myanmar has become a prison for different nationalities, the diversity of which once made the country famous in the world. In the most brutal instance, in 1988, the regime forcibly evicted 300,000 of the country's minority Rohingya Muslims who fled to Bangladesh, creating a humanitarian catastrophe.

The story refuses to stop there: in November last year some Myanmarese naval ships illegally entered into Bangladesh territory, which is thought to be rich in oil, gas and other mineral resources. Even though the Bangladesh Navy repulsed the Myanmarese intruders, the country, it seems, is bent on making its western neighbour's life difficult. A few weeks ago, the Myanmar army has turned up in Mongdu and Alitanjo to evict ethnic Muslim Rohingyas from their ancestral homeland. They forcibly acquired around 1,000 acres of arable land and distributed it among the Buddhist citizens of Mongdu town. The authority has also told the Rohingyas of the country's Sectors 6 and 7 to go to the hills or to take refuge in Bangladesh.

While the recent carnage at the BDR headquarters has brought the country's border guards on its knees, in the recent weeks, more and more Rohingyas are trying to enter into Bangladesh on different points at the border such as Palongkhali and Ghundhum. Most of these refugees have stories of inhuman tortures and tribulations that they have gone through at the hands of their own security forces. More such exodus may be in the offing as the Myanmarese authority is reported to have been planning to build a new cluster of villages near the border. In fact, recent history of the Southeast Asian nation suggests that its government has been systematically pursuing a policy to change the demography of its Rakhine State.

Bangladesh's experience with the Myanmarese refugees has never been pleasant. Some of these refugee organisations heavily depend on arms and drug trafficking to fund themselves. To make it even worse, some of these groups maintain a strong relationship with Bangladeshi extremist groups.

There are signs that the diplomatic and military defeat that the country has suffered last winter over the oil and gas rigs at the Bay is not being taken lightly by the Generals in Naypyidaw. Recently Myanmar has started to fence its border with Bangladesh, and it has strengthened its military presence in the Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh. The most notable addition in the junta's armoury is a few missiles, which the country has deployed near Bangladesh border. In the Arakan region alone, with the new deployment, the Myanmar army's strength stands at 500,000. A continuous supply of military hardware is pouring in; along with it the junta is improving the infrastructural facilities. Everything, in fact, indicates that the Generals in Myanmar are again planning to lay claim to the disputed waters of the Bay.

And they could not have got a time better than now. Our national border has never been so unguarded before. The Pilkhana massacre has left Bangladesh's border guards in tatters, because of which smuggling in Bangladesh-Myanmar border has increased. Taking its advantage, says intelligence officials, Bangladesh's eastern neighbour is nowadays sending more spies into Bangladesh territory.

How prepared are we then to thwart a second Myanmarese intrusion? Our military presence in the area, compared to new Myanmarese build up, is shabby. Take Kaptai power station, which, should the border skirmishes turn into a large-scale conflict, will become a natural target of the enemy fire. No step has so far been taken to create a defence shield around it.

Our Navy needs to be armed with the newest military gadgets; new soldiers need to be recruited into the army. Given that a huge number of our men and women in the army work abroad in different UN missions, the number of soldiers that remain in the country is inadequate to fend off any adventurous threat of an invading force. It is time the government takes the matter seriously; in the changed global scenario, where energy security has become important, Bangladesh quickly needs build a million-man army. The government must also make military training compulsory for every able-bodied citizens, a six-months course on military study should be incorporated into Higher Secondary syllabus. On top of it all, Bangladesh must also equip its armed forces with the state of the art arsenals. A strong army, as the old saying goes, is the best deterrent. Bangladesh also has to make joint patrols and exercises with friendly countries such as the US, UK and Australia.

On the diplomatic front, China is Myanmar's only trusted ally. It has been told by the western media that the Myanmarese Generals have houses in China, in case a mass upsurge forces them to flee the country. China has also long been Bangladesh's friend; the country may seek Chinese help to dissuade the Myanmarese junta from carrying out a second misadventure into Bangladeshi waters.

After the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the Myanmarese junta is perhaps one of the most brutal regimes in this part of the world. While the world's media is preoccupied with Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, the Myanmarese government unleashes a reign of terror on its own citizens. After the cyclone Nargis hit the country's Irrawaddy delta last year, killing 200,000, the Myanmarese Generals deliberately dilly-dallied in issuing the UN the permission to work in the densely populated Irrawaddy Division, a move that prompted the UN to call the situation unprecedented. Imposition of an economic and diplomatic sanction on such a vile regime has long been overdue.

As a nation that loves democracy, freedom and rule of law, Bangladesh cannot remain an apathetic observer in Myanmarese affairs. It is time we take the western capitals into confidence. Myanmar's last four-decade-old treacherous history shows us that to deal with the country's Generals one needs both a carrot and a stick. The sooner our foreign office realises it the better.

http://www.thedailystar.net/magazine...t_affaires.htm