PAF Lacking Punch For Future... Says who?

[Solid Beast]

PAF has a very tough role in the region, and to compound the situation in terse manners, the fighter aircraft department always comes under scrutiny in forums amongst other places. I however do not think that in the medium term future think PAF is lacking. I however do concede they may be lacking now (no bvr till 2010) and long term future (uncertainty of 5th generation) but there is a very ambitious air force being put together. Forget about the lost 90's.

To not turn this into a PAF vs IAF thread, it can be concluded that the IAF Su30MKI is of grave concern (comparable to F15E), 280 of them by 2015. MMRCA deal is of concern too, 120+ top of the line fighters. By 2020, I would figure in the Tejas as well. They will probably not receive either JSF or a Russian advanced fighter till much after 2025. Enough about IAF.

PAF in the same time frame.

18 F-16 Block 52
36 FC-20
60+ F-16 MLU
~150 JF-17
34 Mirage 5 ROSE(to be retired around 2016)
33 Mirage III ROSE (^^)

331 fighters in total

All will be datalinked with 8 AWACS platforms and all of them are capable of carrying conventional and non conventional items as well as advanced missiles like the Chinese SD-10 BVR (100 km+ range) or the AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM (105 km range). Thunder could carry MICA and later models could boast French engines and radar. 4 IL-78 refuellers are also in the list.

What is needed is not thinking about expensive stop gap options from Europe such as Dassault Rafale or more F-16 Block 52, but R&D and investment with partner consortiums to put up a locally produced sophisticated unmanned and armed aerial vehicles and a massive long range SAM network that can get past the stealth fog like the S-400 and offer for export. Partner nations can include China, Brazil, Ukraine and even France and Italy.

[Neo]

PAF is gaining strength is she's not a push over. Despite lack of modern equippement she proved that not the machine but the man behind the machine is her main assett and she's got worlds best men.

PAF was badly affected by Pressler amandment and financial crisis in the 90's and had to look into black markets for spares. That is no longer the case, new hardware and upgrades have already been aquired and domestic indutry has matured a lot eversince. New block 52 F-16's will boost our capabilities but its the JF-17 and FC-20 one has to look out for. We're focused on these platforms and will see modified and upgraded versions in near future.

JF-17 is already ahead of the J-10A in terms of developemtn and the Block II will be equipped with AESA which bring it to a 4+/4.5 gen fighter.

Erieye will be delivered this month introducing net-centric warefare which will reduce threat related to numeric superiority of the adversaries.

[Mastankhan]

Hi,

I would like to agree to disagree---the two new platforms---jf 17 and fc 20---. The jf 17 is flying around----in 2 to 5 years time, it will come out as a maturing platform----the concern is about the fc 20----this plane has engine problems---the chinese engine has not been certified yet for this plane. Pak may not be able to get the russian engine for this bird at all---,

It is not safe to bet the destiny of the nation on two completely new platfoms---two completely un-proven systems---even though how good they seem to appear on paper and during evaluation.

Once the JF 17's go out to their respective assigned sqdrns---then after 6 months to a year later, we will find out how they are doing. Right now they are in a laboratory setting. The field settings will seperate the wannabe to the one to be.

For that reason---pakistan needs to supplement its air arm---possibly with the mirage 2k-9's----now and then a couple of sqdrns of rafaels---.

[Solid Beast]

the concern is about the fc 20----this plane has engine problems---the chinese engine has not been certified yet for this plane. Pak may not be able to get the russian engine for this bird at all---

Though the Chinese engine is not yet ready for mass production, China has stockpiled on these engines from the Russians and told Musharraf supply wouldn't be a problem. What I see as a potential problem is AL-31 though a good engine...thrust displacement overhaul time and overall metallurgy of materials could be better which makes me wonder why it is being considered as the engine for our high end future fighter when already there are superior engines out there.

It is not safe to bet the destiny of the nation on two completely new platfoms---two completely un-proven systems---even though how good they seem to appear on paper and during evaluation.

I completely agree though in relative terms we can safely conclude that they are far superior to the previous generation of new platforms as well.

For that reason---pakistan needs to supplement its air arm---possibly with the mirage 2k-9's----now and then a couple of sqdrns of rafaels---.

Pakistan obtaining used M2K's, which would be a great addition, is a logistical hassle and a burden on funds already earmarked. The assembly line is closed and IAF already has a lot of experience with the ins and outs of it. In the long run it would be wise to obtain F-16 MLU's from Turkey as they phase into JSF. F16 and M2K are both essentially designated for strike roles instead of a true air superiority fighter which Pakistan lacks. Rafale is great but if any choice on top of FC-20 or Block 50 is to be made, it should keep in mind mrca of India and what decision comes out of that. As for a fighter like Rafale, it would make sense if we were a nation not capable of aircraft design/production and swimming in money. Love to see it in PAF but won't happen anytime soon I think.

[Zob]

well see solid beast when you talk about S-400 systme the problem with such expensive SAM systems is that they can be countered very easily with an ARM(anti radiation/radar missile)!!

as for PAF buying fighters currently we are getting our very own JFs first batch of 42 from the chinese on SOFT LOANS!!! PAF unfortunately is deprived and can just sit and watch the enemy move ahead leaps and bounds!!!

[Mastankhan]

Hi Zob,

You have a good point---but still you ought to have the S 400 type missiles to have a complete defencive package at hand---they are as vulnerable to the radiation missiles as any other system---S 400 gives breathing room to your fighter planes---it keeps the enmy on its toes and its awacs at a safe distance---.

It high altitude strike capability is of utmost importance against high flying air planes.

[Araz]

I wonder what the strategy of the offenders would be vis a vis pakistan. If they have the necessary facilities, a salvo of CMs and ARMs destroying Ground based radars and LR SAMs. I realize that S400 will be truck mounted but in most cases due to saturated attack by CMs will the missies be destroyed? In many ways i feel that PA has resource restraints and S400 is neither available nor cheap.
As to the fighters, PAF has severe resource constraints. I think mastan Khan is right in that PAF is banking quite heavily on two untried platforms. As to the M2K and Rafale debate, if we are ever going down this route one has to take into account the vision and expectations of PAF about its mainstays and the level of maturity they will acquire. If it is a matter of upto 5 yrs and especially if the F16s saga comes o a tragic end or interlude, PAF may well buy M2Ks now and deploy the rest of its funds to developing the 2 paltforms it has to hand. If its perception is either that MRCA will really tip the balance in India ,s favour and our new platforms are not going to mature to the level we want them to in time, then in my view there is no sense in wasting money on M2Ks which will not add any thing to the existing capabilities that we have, and either go for rafale which is our ACMs favourite , or the EFwhich ias second only to F22/F35. The only other plane lef in the equation is J11B.
In all fairness, i think PAFs loveaffair with the F16 is about to come to a sorry end. I dont see PAF going for more F16s, certainly not new ones, and possibly also old ones. However in the current circumstances, where PAF has wisened up and made allowances, and uncle SAM knows about it , I see a glimmer of hope that PAF will get the F16s it has ordered. However we have to wait and see, whetehr this prediction comes true.
Araz

[Mastankhan]

Hi,

I donot foresee any problems in the delivery of the F 16's---the u s army is on a back foot in afgh---pak army has launched one of its biggest attacks in waziristan---pak millitary is committed too far into the attack---and right now for the u s to do anything to disturb the balance will be too shocking to the relationship.

So----will get all the blk 52's plus the missiles and lots of other surplus from iraq as well---.

We need to remember that pentagon is in pakistan's corner---even though some of the congressmen and senators may not like it----they may not have too much choice to disagree with their generals at this time---americas decision to commit or to pull out will go in favour of pakistan either way---if they committ more troops, they will need more support from pakistan---movement of supplies etc---if they want to sat at the current level----they would need to step up the support the pak army, to keep the taliban in check.

At this time---paf has a big big hole to fill up----as you people know, we have talked about it many a times in different places----M2k 5---9 would have done very very nicely if ordered in 2002---roughly 40 planes----with night attack capabilities----pakistan had the money---would nopt have noticed it even---as for as logistics is concerned---pak has been assisting qatar---uae with the upkeep of their M2ks's---it would have fit in like a old glove---the capacity of paf would have been enhanced five to ten times.

You have to analyze it this way----paf had the choice of competing with iaf at approx 80 % by 2005---2010 if they had picked the right air craft on a fast track in 2000---2002. But as of today---we won't be ever close to that figure maybe in the next 15 to 20 years---.

I love the nationalism and fervour of my colleagues----but in practical---JF 17 would start to mature by 2015---FC 20 would be maturing by 2018---2020, if have the right engine for that aircraft----but the tragedy is that by year 2020---we will only be where we could have been in 2005----2010----( french option ). If we had picked up the rafael---then the time gap to equalize would have widened further.

What does that mean---PAF decided to stay inferior out of choice due to their bad and defective analysis after the peace measure by Musharraf and Vajpayee---the PAF's blunder will keep us as an under performer for many many years to come---india will keep up its threatening posture---we will have to keep some of our troops alert on the border all the time.

I am a firm believer that major weapons of death and destruction must make some kind of strong political statement to the enemy---that is what keeps the enemy at bay---that is the reason you buy them to keep peace---the JF 17 doesnot make any kind of statement----the M2k 9 would----the Rafael would definitely have.

[duhastmish]

my friend - mastan khan absolutely on the spot.

i think - why sir is emphasizing on Rafael is that : its coming from France and french love their euros .

once they get a hold of money they have no problem delivering you the start of art weapons. unlike american where whole anti af--pak lobby will make it night mare for paksitan, they will agree but will take too much time to deliver even - easy fighters.

( but only problem is money France want hard cash - no soft loan )

looking at current pakistan's economy - i think f-16 blk-52 are good fighter , they can be upgraded very easily and they are war proven and paksitan is flying them for years.

and with current involvement ( which is increasing in taleban war ) Pakistan - should find it easier to get the american hardware.

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x--

although it sound a great deal if pakistan can get s-400 which is suppose to best in its league right now , matching even better than american patriot.

i doubt if Russian will supply s-400 to Pakistan. reason we all know.

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jf-17 is great fighter , for what it cost but its a generation too old. ( for my liking ) and yes - j-10b is great fighter but by the time it will be inducted in paksitan. i doubt it will be late.

the maximum potential i see in having j-10b , is that in extreme it can match a f-16 block 52 + aesa radar.

----x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
saying that :

i dont see paksitan getting involved in any big war in next 5-10 years, max fight scene is with taleban for whom even paksitan's old birds are good enough.

but in future pakistan have to - go for some good fighter - like Rafael or jsf may be. i really think by 2018 , paksitan would be able to at least talk about having jsf from Americans. and also unfortunately for india and fortunately for paksitan - china's fifth gen - fighter will be ready too.
at that point fo time pakistan will be in good situation, i.e 12-15 yrs time.

but i hope by then the hate and war situation should be over.

[Mastankhan]

Hi,

It is not the war that we fear but the posturing ( we do fear the war )---the waters of chenab are controlled for two months---india's major air dominance fighter is posted 30 miles away from pak border----even though it maybe a blunder on part of iaf to post it over there---but to the public it is very important----then there is the deployment of mig 29 to another base close to the border---same issue---same problem---.

India is confident that its posturing and sabre rattling will have a serious effect on the world opinion against pakistan---pak being blamed for attacks in india---pakistan is in a terribly inconvinient situation at this time.

It needs breathing room of some kind---it needs space to move around to turn things over----but it is being caught between a rock and a hard place.

We will lose, not because we don't have the courage to fight, or because we won't show up for war----we will lose, because we didnot use the time properly to fill up the gaps that we had in our assets, to counter the opponent.